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Thursday, September However, it's something we do quite a bit of have you seen our work on election prediction - Brexit, Trump, UK , Germany etc - we got them all right so I went along to the NESTA Futurescoping event on this last night see what they had that I could steal to offer. There were 4 talks on various ways of predicting the future, or more accurately 4 ways of making scenarios reading entrails of dead animals is still outre, but with the return to the Age of Unreason we are seeing I wouln't be surprised it it makes a comeback, albeit maybe with dead plants. For example Cat did one session on blockchain visualisation using a blood transfusion drone made of felt and other blue petery stuff to stimulate thoughts of what electronic vampire? Whether you agree with the approach or not In my experience with Tech you do often do have to build a Future Thing for people to be able to think concretely about, and this looks useful for that - but it's risky to abstract the results too far without doing the hard sums His view is that a scenario is an Imagined vision - doesn't have to be correct, but you need a range including a best and worst. So far same old same old, but his approach is to use the play as a vehicle to slip in the assumptions and outcomes as just part of teh narrative. This evening he acted out making a nature documentary in the future, but members of the audience had to answer assumptions on the role of nature reserves in the future, impact of tourism, and the various other assumptions about the future, using the play-acting as a vehicle to sideways slide in the assumptions of the real scenario, ie the setup conditions as part of the building the story, and the edenouemaent is anarrative end of teh reults of the various 2x2 essumption matrices. Overall impression - the evening seemed a bit heavy on the qualitative and light on the quantitative, my experience is at some point someone with the power of decision making says "show me the numbers behind the grand vision" which is where simulation type modelling has an advantage , so while I could see how some of the more narrative approaches could really help the envisioning. I think - as Cat noted in the first talk - always base your scenarios on evidence of research.

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All you need to do is, take a data quality approach to developing an agile software solution that creates massive value for a team of researchers in a specific scientific discipline and share that value openly. From Bhutan Feb Home Members Program. Simple path to success.

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